Canada’s Fall Housing Market Enters a Cautious Season — But Could That Soon Change?
Canada’s housing market this fall hasn’t exactly burst out of the gate. According to a fresh report from the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), the country’s real estate scene in September looked “uneven and fragile,” with activity varying wildly from one city to another. It’s the kind of market where some regions are showing faint signs of recovery, while others appear to be losing steam — and that contrast has many wondering what’s really ahead for Canadian homeowners.
RBC’s analysis of September figures from local real estate boards painted a subdued picture: this fall started on a relatively “low-key” note. While a few major centres such as Winnipeg, Regina, and Toronto experienced modest bumps in home resales compared with August, most markets didn’t share that momentum. Cities including Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Hamilton, Ottawa, Montreal, and Halifax all saw small drops in sales, underscoring just how uneven this recovery really is.
“The recovery is still fragile,” noted RBC economist Robert Hogue. “In some areas, it’s as if buyers and sellers are stuck in a standoff, each waiting for the other to blink first.”
Buyers Are Back in Control — For Now
One major shift this fall is the growing power of homebuyers. With inventory levels expanding across Ontario, British Columbia, and parts of Alberta, those looking to purchase now have more choice — and more leverage — than they’ve seen in years. As RBC explains, bigger inventories have handed buyers a stronger negotiating position, especially in once red-hot regions where bidding wars were commonplace not long ago.
Many potential buyers are betting that prices haven’t bottomed out yet. For them, patience seems to be the most strategic move. This so-called “wait-and-see” strategy is being echoed in open houses and online forums across the country. But could waiting too long mean missing the eventual rebound?
Toronto: A Market on Pause
Few places illustrate the new reality better than Toronto, where the ratio of available listings to active buyers has reached decades-high levels. The result? Downward pressure on home prices. September marked the 10th decline in the last 11 months, with the city’s average home price dipping to $971,500. That figure represents a steep 25% slide — a loss of roughly $320,000 — compared to the peak in early 2022.
Yet even amid these falling prices, something surprising is happening: activity is slowly picking up. Home resales in Toronto rose by 2% from August, and when compared to the last four months, resales are up by an impressive 22%. It appears that lower prices have revived interest, tempting previously sidelined buyers back into the market.
Vancouver: Still Canada’s Priciest, Despite the Dip
Meanwhile, in Vancouver, inventory is also building while prices lose altitude. RBC reported that the average home price in September hovered around $1.14 million — down 3.2% ($38,000) from last year and more than 9% ($118,000) below where things stood at the height of spring 2022. And yet, despite this cooling, Vancouver stubbornly retains its title as Canada’s least affordable housing market.
The Bigger Picture: What Comes Next?
So, where is all this heading? RBC’s report offers a cautious but hopeful outlook: while the next few months may remain unpredictable, a stronger recovery could gradually take shape as Canada’s broader economy regains momentum and the job market steadies.
Economist Robert Hogue summed it up frankly: “The road ahead is likely to be bumpy.” But as interest rates stabilize and economic growth firms up, he expects a more confident housing market to emerge heading into 2026.
However, here’s the controversial part — some analysts argue that the so-called “recovery” may only benefit certain regions, potentially widening the affordability gap between urban and mid-sized markets. Could Canada be entering a new era where smaller cities outperform the big metros?
What do you think? Is the housing market simply catching its breath before the next climb, or are we witnessing a deeper rebalancing that could reshape homeownership for a generation? Share your thoughts and perspectives in the comments — this debate is far from over.
